III
Population and Development
Aslam Mehmood
Population Change: Historical Perspective:
Since the evolution of mankind till the beginning of 1880s the number of human population could reach only one billion (1000 million) and until 1960 it could reach 3 billion mark only. It has now reached 6 billion mark. Today, the world gains 1 billion people in every 12 years or around 80 million people each year, equivalent to 220,000 people a day (Engelman 1997, p. 11). More than 90 per cent growth in the world population takes place in developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. There are, however, regional variations in their rate of natural increase (birth rate minus death rate) also. It ranges from 1.4 per cent per annum in Asia and 1.6 per cent per annum in Latin America to 2.6 per cent per annum in Africa. Although natural increase rate is smaller in Asia than what it is in Africa and Latin America, the vast continent has 3/4th of the world population and thus adds more people to the population of the world than any other continent. Population density is also found to be highest in Asia with more than 108 persons per square kilometer on average. Its average value is 23 persons per square kilometer in Latin America, 24 persons per square kilometer in Africa and 14 persons per square kilometer in North America (UN, 1996).
Even if present population could live safely with the existing resources on Earth, the momentum of population growth will remain a serious concern for us even after women begin having two children each on average (known as replacement level fertility). This is due to the fact that when there are many people in the child bearing age, even two children per family on an average will produce births well in excess to deaths. As due to past experience of fertility an unusually higher proportion of population consists of young people in the child bearing age and these people contribute substantial population momentum of growth which is a critical demographic factor today and will continue for some time to come also.
Population and Resources
In the context of economic growth of western Europe and North America, Kuznet (1966) defined modem economic growth as a sustained increase in population. Population growth of industrialised Europe or western Europe at that time was however slow. It seldom exceeded 1.0 per cent per annual as compared to the rapid population growth of developing countries during the post Second World War. Towards the beginning of the second half of the twentieth century mortality in most of the developing countries started falling down dramatically without any accomanying fall in fertility. As a result population growth rates in most of the developing countries registered unprecedented increase ranging from 2.0 to 4.0 percent per annum. The consequences of population growing faster than the means of subsistence were initially outlined bv Malthus (1959) in his famous essay on population. The means of subsistence, Malthus claimed, grew only at arithmetic rate, whereas populations tended to grow at geometric faster than the arithmetic rate). When the imbalance between growth in the means of subsistence and in population becomes too great, factors such as hunger, epidemic diseases and war - which Malthus called "positive checks" - would operate to increase the deaths and reduce the population to a level compatible with the means of subsistence.
Later he added "preventive checks" also related to births such as late marriage, and other means of family planning.
Another important theory explaining rapid population growth in developing countries is demographic transition theory (Notestein 1945). As per demographic transition theory every country passes through three stages of demographic transition. In the first stage both birth rates and death rates are high and growth rate of population remain low. As economy progresses, education spreads, standards of living improve and medical and health facilities improve the death rates go down. At this second stage of the demographic transition the difference between birth rate and death rate is high and population grows with a very high rate. However, in developed countries this stage does not remain for long and with a lag of few years fertility also starts declining and the third stage of demographic transition takes place. At this stage both fertility and mortality decline and population growth stablises to a low level. In agrarian economies of the third world, the factors responsible for decline in fertility remain absent and it does not decline and populations remain at second stage of demographic transition of high population growth rate. The theory has several drawbacks also (Kirk, 1996). Although there is no unanimity among the scientists over the pre-cise impact of population growth on development as tracing the cause and effect in this case is not direct. The cumulative evidence, however, is strong enough to show that current rates of population growth pose significant risk to human well being and are legitimate concern for all nations. In a short span of time we have noticed that human population has become a force on earth that rivals nature. The reason for this are complex and are linked to changes of not only in human population but also in technology, consumption patterns, unequal distribution of wealth etc.
Population and Economic Development
Economic development according to the theory of Demographic Transition has the effect of bringing about a reduction in the death rates. Such reduction in death rate can take place either due to greater regularity in food supply (Coale & Hoover, 1958) and improvement in law and order etc. or due to advancement in medical technology or due to both (UN, 1953). Both of these factors of death rate reduction are rooted in economic development of the society. In developing countries, however, the rapid growth of population may make it difficult to accomplish these goals of economic and social changes which are necessary for fertility reduction (Coale & Hoover, 1953, p.17). There appears to be a vicious circle between population change and development. In developing countries higher population growth will slow down social and economic development and as a consequence these countries are unable to reduce their population growth rate. The process continues even today and will be highlighted if we compare the population growth and socioeconomic development in developed and developing countries of today.
To start with the growth rate of population in developed and developing countries of the world is given in Table 1.
Table-I : Population Growth Rate
Region |
Period | |||
| 1950-55 | 1990-95 | 1995-2000 | 2045-50 | |
| More developed | 1.21 | 0.40 | 0.26* | -0.23* |
| Less Developed | 2.05 | 1.77 | 1.65* | 0.55* |
Source : World Population Prospects the 1996 version, UN 1998 p. 10
* Projected
From table 1 it is quite clear that the population growth rate of more developed regions of world is consistently lower than the less developed region and is likely to show higher reduction in latter part of this millenium and towards the turn of next century also. The result of such a lower population growth rate in developed countries in comparison to developing countries is due to the difference in the fertility among developed and less developed countries. The differences in the death rates among developed and less developed countries, however, are not significant.
Table-2 gives the trends of fertility and mortality among developed and less developed countries of the world in the recent past. The table very clearly shows a faster decline of TFR in developed countries in relation to death rates.
Table-2 : Trends of Fertility and Mortality in the World,
Developed and Less Developed Countries 1950-95.
Period |
World | Developed Countries | Less developed |
|||
| TFR | CDR | TFR | CDR | TFR | CDR | |
| 1960-65 | 5.0 | 15.6 | 2.7 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 18.2 |
| 1965-70 | 4.9 | 13.4 | 2.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 15.0 |
| 1970-75 | 4.5 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 12.0 |
1975-80 3.9 11.0 1.9 9.5 4.7 11.5
1980-85 3.6 11.0 1.8 9.6 4.1 10.5
1985-90 3.4 9.6 1.8 9.6 3.8 9.6
1990-95 3.0 9.3 1.7 10.1 3.3 9.1
Source : World Population Prospects 1996 version UN 1998 p.20
TFR = Total Fertility Rates, CDR = Crude Death Rates (Oer 1000)
TFR and CDR in 1960-65 were 2.7 and 9.4 respectively in developed countries. However, during 1990-95 CDR remained 10.1 very close to 1960-65 position of 9.4, whereas the value of TFR declined to 1.7 from 2.7. On the other hand in less developed countries TFR and CDR both have registered a sharp decline from 1960-65 to 1990-95. The values of TFR and CDR in 1960-65 were 6.0 and 18.2 in less developed countries which went down to 3.3 and 9.1 respectively during 1990-95. The sharp decline of mortality in less developed countries is attributed mainly to the benifits of developments in the field of medical technology which primarily took place in the west. However, the matching lower fertility could not be achieved in less developed countries due to lack of enough social and economic development. It has been pointed out that right from the beginning of the industrial revolution in Europe, cultural and other developmental factors kept fertility much below the biological maximum (Population Crisis Committee 1985).
The influence of socio-economic development on demographic variables can be seen effectively by taking infant mortality rates (IMR) both for developed and less developed countries as shown in Table-3.
Table-3 : Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) for Developed
and Less Developed Countries 1960-65 to 1990-95
| IMR | |||
| Year | World | Developed Countries | Less Developed Countries |
| 1960-65 | 118 | 33 | 135 |
| 1965-70 | 102 | 26 | 115 |
| 1970-75 | 93 | 21 | 104 |
| 1975-80 | 87 | 18 | 98 |
| 1980-85 | 78 | 1 | 87 |
| 1985-90 | 69 | 13 | 76 |
| 1990-95 | 62 | 11 | 68 |
Source: World Population Prospects, 1996 revision 1998 UN, p.7
Table-3 very clearly shows a considerable fall in IMR in developed countries during 1960-65 to 1990-95. It fell down to 11 from 33 during this period - something around 66 per cent. In less developed countries also the value of IMR declined but from 135 to 68 during the said period - something less than 50 per cent. As IMR is a very sensitive indicator of socio-economic development, the data given in table-3 does indicate a higher socio-economic status of the developed countries. Thus we can say that as a result of development in medical technology in developed countries the benefits of reduction in mortality reach to developed countries as well as to less developed countries also. However the benefits of social development do not reach to the developing countries in the same way. As a result there is no parallel fall in the fertility in the developing countries as will be the case in developed countries. Less developed countries will remain in second stage of demographic transition with rapid population growth.
In the light of the above theoretical and empirical relationship between population growth and development at the macro level for the world, the indian situation can also be analyzed more meaningfully.
Population Gromth and Development in India
Census of India in 1991 recorded the population of India about 844 million as on lst March 1991 giving it the share in the world population of about 16 per cent from 15.2 per cent in 1981. Every sixth person in the world is an Indian. Since then, however, more than 100 ten million have been added to it.
Table-4 below gives the population of India for last 100 years (according to present boundaries).
Table-4 : Population of India 1901-91
| Year | Population (in million) | Decadal Growth rate |
| 1901 | 238.4 | - |
| 1911 | 252.1 | 5.7 |
| 1921 | 251.3 | -0.3 |
| 1931 | 279.0 | 11.0 |
| 1941 | 318.7 | 14.2 |
| 1951 | 361.1 | 13.3 |
| 1961 | 439.2 | 21.5 |
| 1971 | 548.2 | 24.8 |
| 1981 | 683.3 | 24.7 |
| 1991 | 843.9 | 23.5 |
Source : Census of India 1991
Table-4 shows that during the 1980s population of India increased by 161 million. The population of India in 1991 was two and a half times the population at the time of independence. It was almost double the population of Latin America and one and a quarter times the population of whole of Africa. The increase in the population of India during 1980s was equivalent to the total population of western Europe. In terms of annual increase we add nearly the total population of Australia every year (Premi, 1991). The table also shows a consistent increase after 1921. The rate of population growth during 1921-31 was 11.0 per cent, which kept on increasing until 1971-81 when it reached the maximum of 24.7 per cent per decade. Only during 1981-91, the decadal growth rate of population showed a marginal decline in relation to the previous decade and reached 23.5 per cent per decade only.
As alongwith developments in science and technology not only world population has increased, the means of subsistence have also been improved. It is, therefore, difficult to separate out the effect of population and technology on development. In the following section, however, changes in some of the socio-economic variables having close relationship with population are discussed.
One of the direct consequence of rapid population growth is on the age structure of the population which will show a higher proportion of population in the younger ages. It will also affect the median age of the population. The population growth also indirectly influences the per capita availability of various resources. If proportional change in population and resources are same over a period of time, the per capita situation will not change. However, if population growth exceeds the resources, the per capita availability will decrease and in the reverse situation per capita availability will increase.
From the view point of the age structure of the population the important age groups are 0-14 years (child population), 15-59 years (working age population) and 60+ years (elderly population). Percentage distribution of the population of India in these three age groups is given in Table-5 from 1901 to 1991.
Table-5 : Percentage distribution of population of India
in different age groups 1901-91
| Year | Age Groups | Median Age | ||
| 0-14 | 15 - 59 | 60+ | ||
| 1901 | 38.60 | 56.35 | 5.05 | 21.3 |
| 1911 | 38.45 | 56.40 | 5.15 | 21.2 |
| 1921 | 39.20 | 55.55 | 5.25 | 21.1 |
| 1931 | 40.00 | 55.95 | 4.05 | 19.9 |
| 1941 | 38.25 | 56.85 | 4.95 | 21.0 |
| 1951 | 37.50 | 56.85 | 5.65 | 21.1 |
| 1961 | 41.00 | 53.36 | 5.64 | 20.5 |
| 1971 | 42.02 | 52.01 | 5.97 | 19.1 |
| 1981 | 39.54 | 53.98 | 6.48 | 20.5 |
| 1991 | 37.25 | 55.98 | 6.77 | 21.9 |
Source : UN 1982 Population of India: Country monograph series No. 10, New York.
Table 5 shows that share of 0-14 years has been very large. The table also shows a marginal increase in the 60+ years age group. The age group of 15-59, however, registered a marginal decline due to the increase in the groups 60+.
As mentioned earlier this is the direct consequence of rapid population growth and those populations which have higher proportion of population in the age group 0-14 years will have higher demographic dependency ratio. Population in the age group 0-14 is considered as children and our legislation does not allow them to work as regular worker. As the population in this age group will increase, the adult working age group population will have greater burden to support them which in turn will slow down economic development and will bring more inefficiency into the economy. Dependency of adult population, however, is more of social nature.
Another direct relationship of rapid population growth is with the median age of population. The median age of population is also given in Table-5. Due to large concentration of population in the age group 0-14 years, the median age is found to be quite low. Due to lowering of median age it is said that population of India is younger.
Another important variables which will have relationship with population growth, discussed here are literacy, employment, pattern of land utilization and production of agricultural goods. Their progress has been traced out during the post independence period from 1951 to 1991 in the following sections.
Table-6 below provides literacy rates and also total number of illiterates in India.
Table-6 : Literacy rates and illiterates in India 1951-91
| Year | Literacy rates (in percent) | Illiterates (in million) | ||||
| Total | Male | Female | Total | Male | Female | |
| 1951 | 16.6 | 24.9 | 7.9 | |||
| 1961 | 28.3 | 30.9 | 15.3 | 333.9 | 148.5 | 135.4 |
| 1971 | 29.5 | 39.5 | 18.7 | 386.5 | 171.9 | 214.6 |
| 1981 | 26.7 | 39.5 | 16.8 | 424.2 | 182.6 | 241.8 |
| 1991 | 40.7 | 53.6 | 27.0 | 491.8 | 213.3 | 278.5 |
Source : (1) M.K. Premi (1991) India’s Population: Heading towards a billion. B.R. Publishing Corp.
(2) Statistical Abstracts of India 1997 (for 1951 values).
Table-6 shows an overall improvement in the proportions of literates to the total population which has increased from 16.6 percent in 1951 to 40.7 per cent in 1991. Improvement in the literacy of female, however, is quite remarkable. It has registered an increase from 7.9 per cent in 1951 to 27.0 per cent in 1991 - an increase of about two and a half times. The literacy of male during this period could only double.
The story of illiteracy is also no different from that of literacy. Number of illiterates in India has also been increasing very consistently. Here again although female have shown higher improvement in the rates of literacy compared to male, their number in illiteracy has also increased and in 1991 it has exceeded the number of males.
When we deal with the employment data we face the major conceptual problem of defining ‘worker’ which has undergone several changes in census definition. The National Sample Survey Organisation, however, has given 8.35 per cent employment in 1972-73 which has gone down to 6.09 per cent in 1987-88 (Planning Commission, p.13). Sectoral division of workers as provided by census is relatively more comparable and is given in Table 7 for the period between 1961-91.
Table-7 : Sectoral Division of workers in percentage
| Year | Sectors | |||
| Primary | Secondary | Tertiary | Total | |
| 1961 | 72.3 | 11.7 | 16.0 | 100.0 |
| 1971 | 72.6 | 10.7 | 16.7 | 100.0 |
| 1981 | 69.3 | 12.9 | 17.8 | 100.0 |
| 1991 | 67.4 | 12.1 | 20.5 | 100.0 |
Source: Census of India 1961, 1971, 1981 and 1991
Primary Sector = Cultivators, Ag. Labourers and live stock, Forestry, fishing etc. and mining and quarrying.
Secondary Sector = Manufacturing in household and other than household and construction.
Tertiary Sector = Trade and Commerce, transport storage and communications and other services.
Table 7 shows a slow decline in the share of primary sector and a marginal increase in the secondary sector accompanied by substantial increase in the tertiary sector. Primary sector in the country has declined from 72.3 per cent in 1961 to 67.4 per cent in 1991. Tertiary sector, however, has shown an increase from 16.0 per cent to 20.5 per cent during the same period. Secondary sector which is the core of industrialisation, however, has not shown significant increase in this period - although it has also improved marginally from 11.7 per cent to 12.1 per cent during 1971-91.
Effect of population is pronounced on land utilisation, agricultural production and finally on quality of life also. Percentage of net area sown, and area put to nonagricultural uses is given in Table 8 alongwith area sown more than once.
Table-8 : Changing Pattern of land utilisation in India
1950-51 to 1990-91
| Year |
Total area (million hectare) |
Percent-age of net sown area |
Percent of area put to non-agri. uses | Percent of using area |
Total of area |
Percent-age sown more than once |
| 1950-51 | 284.39 | 41.77 | 4.62 | 53.61 | 100.0 | 4.62 |
| 1960-61 | 298.46 | 44.63 | 4.97 | 50.40 | 100.0 | 3.21 |
| 1970-71 | 303.76 | 46.18 | 5.43 | 48.39 | 100.0 | 8.40 |
| 1980-81 | 304.15 | 46.06 | 6.46 | 47.48 | 100.0 | 10.73 |
| 1990-91 | 305.02 | 46.06 | 6.96 | 46.40 | 100.0 | 14.31 |
Source : Statistical Abstract of India 1977
One of the important consequence of population of growth is the increase of net sown area as well as the area sown more than once. Table-8 shows a consistent increase in the percentage of net area sown to total area alongwith a substantial increase in percentage of area sown more than once net sown area which increased from 4.62 percent of 1950-51 to 14.31 in 1990-91.
Another important consequence of population growth is on the land put to nonagricultural uses such as urban and industrial usage. The table also shows a consistent increase in area of land put to non-agricultural usage, which increased from 4.62 per cent to 6.96 during this period.
The consequcne of population is more direct on food production and specially its per capita availability. Table-9 gives the total amount of production of cereals and pulses after independence.
Table-9 : Production of foodgrain and its per capita
availability in India 1950-51 to 1990-91
| Year | Production (000 tones) | Per capita availability (Kg/person) | ||
| Cereals | Pulses | Cereals | Pulses | |
| 1950-51 | 42414 | 16727 | 11.74 | 4.63 |
| 1960-61 | 69314 | 22827 | 15.78 | 5.20 |
| 1970-71 | 96604 | 22492 | 17.12 | 4.10 |
| 1980-81 | 118962 | 23592 | 17.41 | 3.45 |
| 1990-91 | 162124 | 25651 | 19.21 | 3.04 |
Source : Statistical Abstract of India 1977
The table shows a phenomenal increase in the total production of foodgrain cereals which was 42414 thousand tonnes in 1950-51 and increased to about four times in 1990-91 and reached to 161124 thousand tonnes. However part of this growth of cereal production offset population growth which is also about a little less than two and a half time. However, the growth of the production of cereals per capita has been found to be continuously increasing during the post independence period. It was 11.74 kg. in 1950-51 which almost doubled by 1990-91 and reached the level of 19.21 kgs.
Another important food grains are pulses production of which has also increased but only by one and a time during this period. Since the growth of population during 1951 to 1961 is about two and a half times, the per capita availability of pulses has gone down from 4.63 kg. to 3.04 kg.
To summarise the above discussion we can say that although population is one of very important assets of any economy, rapid population growth of less developed countries may create a bottleneck for the development. Although in terms of relative growth of education and food supply etc. may have increased during the post independence period, it is very unlikely that this increase will be sustainable in future also. A large proportion of growth in the economy is being offset by the growth in population. These are some sectors where per capita value has a decline alongwith the growth of population such as per capita available land and per capita availability of pulses etc.
Unsustainable burden of rapid population growth has its impact on the quality of life of the people also. Quality of life of an area hitherto was taken as synonymous to the per capita, "Gross Domestic Product" in many cases. However, in 1990 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) introduced the concept of Human Development which should include many other aspects of human life also. Recognising the difficulty in quantifying many of such variable, UNDP selected three most important variables which cover major part of the quality of life. These variables are: life expectancy, educational attainment and adjusted income (LTNDP, 1998). On the basis of these indicators, for which data is available for almost all the countries, UNDP worked out "Human Development Index" (HDI) and is being published each year in Human Development Report since 1990.
It is very important to note that position of India in terms of ‘Human Development Index’ is not very encouraging. Out of total 174 countries in 1998 report, India ranks 139th much below China which rank 106th. Pakistan in spite of substantial higher per capita real income is only one rank above India due to lower ‘Adult Literacy Rate’. Its position is 138th. The ranks of ‘Human Development Index’ and ‘ its constituents of few selected countries are given below in Table-10.
Table-10 : Life Expectancy (eoo), Adult Literacy (ALR) Percapita Adjusted Income (PAI) and Human Development Index (HDI) of selected countries 1998
| Countries | (eo°), | (ALR) | (PAI) | (HDI) |
| Canada | 79.1 | 99.0 | 21916 | 1 |
| U.S.A. | 76.4 | 99.0 | 26977 | 4 |
| Luxembourg | 76.1 | 99.0 | 34004 | 26 |
| Kuwait | 75.4 | 78.6 | 23848 | 54 |
| China | 69.2 | 81.5 | 2935 | 106 |
| Pakistan | 62.8 | 37.8 | 2209 | 138 |
| India | 61.6 | 52.0 | 1422 | 139 |
| Sierra Leon | 34.7 | 31.4 | 625 | 174 |
Source : Human Development Report 1998
As has been shown earlier, India has shown considerable progress in various field of the economy the rapid growth of population has been working as a big bottleneck and the country is not able to provide sufficiently good quality of life also.
References:
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3. Kuznet Simon (1966), Modern economic growth: New Haven ct: Yale University Press, p. 20.
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